张坤、谈建平、涂善东：长期蠕变寿命预测方法分析 Analysis on Creep Prediction

2026-08-13 16:50:42 作者：张坤、谈建平、涂善东来源：蠕变预测分享至：

研究背景 Introduction

长时蠕变强度对于高温部件的设计与寿命评估至关重要，但获取该数据的过程极为耗时且成本高昂

。

Long-term creep strength is highly desirable for the strength design and life assessment of high-temperature components, yet obtaining this data is exceptionally time-consuming and costly

研究方法 Methods

该研究基于现有文献全面剖析了各类典型的蠕变寿命预测方法，将其主要划分为基于单轴应力状态的方法与基于多轴应力状态（蠕变裂纹扩展试样）的方法两大类。

This study analyzes typical existing prediction methods based on available research, categorizing them primarily into uniaxial stress state-based methods and multiaxial stress state-based methods (utilizing creep crack growth specimens).

研究亮点 Highlights

数据范围敏感性：时间-温度参数（TTP）方法的有效性强烈依赖于用于校准的数据范围，其中LMTTP与OSDTTP在长时外推中表现出基本等效的外推能力。
Data range sensitivity: The effectiveness of time-temperature parameter (TTP) methods strongly depends on the calibration data range, with the LMTTP and OSDTTP methods being essentially equivalent in their long-term extrapolation capabilities.
微观结构退化挑战：基于应变的Monkman-Grant方法在长时预测中因材料微观结构退化而面临准确性存疑的问题，但其引入总应变的修正版本展现出一定潜力。
Microstructural degradation challenges: The strain-based Monkman-Grant method's long-term effectiveness is questionable due to microstructural degradation, although modified versions show promising potential.
多轴方法的优劣：多轴方法（LICON和TTZ）能有效缩短长时蠕变强度的测试时间，但LICON方法对多轴应力断裂准则和本构方程高度敏感，而TTZ方法对蠕变阈值应力的依赖性仍需进一步明确。
Pros and Cons of multiaxial methods: Multiaxial methods (LICON and TTZ) can effectively shorten testing duration; however, LICON is highly sensitive to multiaxial stress rupture criteria and constitutive equations, while TTZ's dependence on the creep threshold stress requires further clarification.
氧化的不可忽视性：氧化作用显著影响所有现有预测方法的准确性，未来的蠕变寿命预测模型中须将氧化效应纳入考量。
The crucial role of oxidation: Oxidation acts as a key factor critically impacting the effectiveness of all methods, highlighting the absolute necessity to incorporate oxidation effects in future long-term creep life predictions.

研究意义 Significance

该研究为工程实践中评估与选择合适的蠕变预测模型提供了关键指导。

This study provides vital guidance for evaluating and selecting appropriate creep prediction models in engineering practice.

图文概览 Graphical Overview

图1 LICON方法示意图

Fig. 1. Illustration of the LICON method.

图2 缩放应力示意图，用于建立蠕变裂纹扩展（CCG）行为与单轴蠕变断裂曲线上下限应力之间的关联

。

Fig. 2. Diagram of the scaling stress used to correlate creep crack growth behavior with the upper and lower stress limits of the uniaxial creep rupture curve.

图3 基于20#和12CrMo钢材的NIMS实验数据，验证TTZ方法在预测蠕变断裂强度方面的有效性

Fig. 3. Demonstration of the TTZ method's effectiveness in predicting creep rupture strength, validated using experimental data of 20# and 12CrMo steels from NIMS.

作者 Authors

该研究的作者为华东理工大学及上海飞行器力学与控制研究院的张坤博士、谈建平教授和涂善东院士。

This paper is authored by Dr. Kun Zhang, Prof. Jian-Ping Tan, and Prof. Shan-Tung Tu from the East China University of Science and Technology and the Shanghai Institute of Aircraft Mechanics and Control.

华东理工大学涂善东院士

Prof. Shan-Tung Tu, ECUST, China

涂善东院士：华东理工大学讲席教授、中国工程院院士。曾任南京工业大学和华东理工大学副校长。涂善东院士一直致力于高温结构完整性和工程领域的研究，包括蠕变、疲劳、断裂、结构完整性监测和高温装备设计。他已发表400余篇出版物，并获得国家科技进步奖、国家技术发明奖等多项殊荣。

Prof. Shan-Tung Tu, Chair Professor at East China University of Science and Technology (ECUST) and Academician of the China Academy of Engineering. He previously served as the Vice President of Nanjing Tech University and ECUST. Prof. Tu has been long dedicated to research in the field of high-temperature structural integrity and engineering, including creep, fatigue, fracture, structural integrity monitoring, and high-temperature equipment design. He has authored over 400 publications and has been honored with numerous prestigious awards, such as the National Science and Technology Progress Award and the National Technological Invention Award.

张坤，博士，2023年毕业于华东理工大学，师从涂善东院士和谈建平教授，2025年加入浙江工业大学机械工程学院。主要致力于高温结构材料的完整性研究，主要研究方向包括：蠕变拘束效应、长时蠕变寿命预测技术以及小试样力学性能测量方法等。

Dr. Kun Zhang obtained his Ph.D. from East China University of Science and Technology (ECUST) in 2023 under the supervision of Prof. Shan-Tung Tu and Prof. Jian-Ping Tan. In 2025, he joined the College of Mechanical Engineering at Zhejiang University of Technology. His research primarily focuses on the structural integrity of high-temperature materials, with specific interests in creep constraint effects, long-term creep life prediction, and small-specimen property measurement techniques.

参考文献 References

Kun Zhang, Jian-Ping Tan, Shan-Tung Tu, Effectiveness of the methods in predicting long-term creep rupture life of materials: a critical analysis, Materials at High Temperatures 42(5-6) (2025) 370–380. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603409.2025.2586361

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